Permutations: How 2024 National 7s Circuit title race could be decided

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The National 7s Circuit will conclude on Sunday with the Prinsloo 7s marking the final tournament of the 2024 campaign.

Three teams—Kenya Harlequin, Kabras RFC, and KCB Rugby—are still in contention for the overall title, though Kenya Harlequin hold the strongest position. To secure the championship, Quins need to maintain their form from the last four tournaments.

Repeat of 2018 National 7s Circuit for Pau

Quins’ head coach, Paul Murunga, finds himself in a familiar situation, similar to what he faced in 2018 when coaching Homeboyz RFC.

In that season, Murunga’s team entered the final tournament, the Christie 7s, needing only a semi-final appearance to fend off their closest challengers, Mwamba RFC. At the time, Homeboyz led the standings with 100 points, while Mwamba sat in second place with 92 points.

The 2018 Christie 7s featured a competitive field, including international sides such as Uganda Emerging 7s, Russia’s Narvskaya Zastava, and South Africa’s TUKS & Blue Bulls.

Despite needing to win the tournament to stay in contention, Mwamba faltered in the quarterfinals, losing 24-5 to KCB Rugby, which effectively handed Homeboyz the overall title.

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Even though they had already secured the championship, Homeboyz went on to dominate the semi-finals against Strathmore Leos and later mounted a dramatic comeback to beat Quins 24-19 in the final, with Leonard Mugaisi scoring a sudden-death try to cap off their campaign.

The situation in 2024 mirrors this, as Murunga’s Quins are once again on the verge of clinching the title if they reach the semi-finals, making their path to victory clear.

Kenya Harlequin’s Path to the Title

Quins lead the standings with 97 points, and their title hopes are clearest. Here’s how it works:

• If Quins reach the semi-finals: They will automatically secure the title, regardless of how other teams perform. A semi-final finish gives them at least 112 points, which is enough to win the circuit.
• If Quins win Prinsloo 7s: They will finish with 119 points and take the title outright.
• If Quins finish second: They will have 116 points, still enough for the crown.
• If Quins finish third: They will earn 114 points, again ensuring they remain champions.
• If Quins finish fourth: They’ll end with 112 points, which would also guarantee them the title.

Complicated Scenarios:

• If Quins fail to reach the semis but win the fifth-place playoff: They will finish with 110 points. In this case, Kabras can only tie them by winning Prinsloo 7s, and tiebreakers like point differential would determine the winner.
• If Quins settle for sixth place: They will finish with 109 points. Kabras would win the title if they win Prinsloo 7s. However, if Kabras falters, Quins could still take the title, even with this low finish.
• If Quins lose in the fifth-place semi-final: They will have 107 points. They will win it if Kabras fail to reach the final while a second-place finish in Prinsloo will see them tie at 107 with the Kakamega-based side and tiebreakers will be employed.

Kabras RFC’s Path to the Title

Kabras, currently second with 88 points, needs a strong showing to stand a chance:

• If Kabras win Prinsloo 7s: They’ll finish with 110 points. For Kabras to win the title, Quins must finish sixth or lower.
• If Quins finish fifth, Kabras and Quins would tie on points, and the title would be decided by point differential or other tiebreakers.
• If Quins reach the semi-finals: Kabras will be out of the running, regardless of their own result.

KCB Rugby’s Path to Title

KCB Rugby, with 86 points, needs a near-perfect outcome:

• If KCB win Prinsloo 7s: They can finish with 108 points. For KCB to win the title, they need Quins to finish no higher than the fifth-place semi-finals (107 points or less) and Kabras to not win the tournament. If Kabras wins Prinsloo, KCB cannot win the title.
• If Quins miss the quarter-finals: KCB must then outscore Kabras by at least three points to win the title.

Stallions’ Survival Battle

Kabete Stallions are battling to secure a spot in the 2025 National 7s Circuit. They must finish ahead of Mwamba RFC to claim 12th place and secure their place for next season.